The Role of Simple Mathematical Models in Malaria Elimination Strategy Design
As discussed in Chapter 7 of A Prospectus on Malaria Elimination, mathematical models play a very important role in addressing the complexities of using multiple partially-effective interventions to control and eliminate malaria. Mathematical models estimate the levels of coverage necessary to eliminate the disease in certain environments, can help to identify the spread of anti-malarial drug resistance, and inform programmatic decisions. Unlike many complex models that require more comprehensive data, a simple model has recently been developed to demonstrate the interrelationships between different interventions and the potential for elimination when they are combined. It is designed specifically for situations where data are sparse, and allows for many intervention scenarios to be analyzed in a short length of time to provide a quick and reliable assessment.